A Look at the Middle East in 2026 from a Historians' Perspective w/ James Gelvin

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In this episode of Parallax Views, I’m joined once again by historian James L. Gelvin to assess the state of the Middle East in 2026. Drawing on his 2017 book The New Middle East: What Everyone Needs to Know, we examine what has changed—and what hasn’t—over the past decade. We discuss U.S. foreign policy and why the Obama administration’s Asia Pivot and partial retreat from the region failed to stabilize it, as well as the Trump administration’s erratic and contradictory Middle East policies.

The conversation explores Iran, Gaza, Turkey, Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia; why the Saudi–Iranian “rapprochement” is better understood as a détente; the limits of sectarian explanations to understanding the Middle East and the enduring problem of Orientalism; shifting American and European public attitudes toward Israel; the spread of new conflict zones since 2017; regional powers jockeying for influence; Trump and Nixon's "Madman" Doctrine; the great risks in the Middle East today and the lessening of U.S. hegemony in the Middle East; Cold War-era offshore balancing vs. today's U.S. policies in the Middle East; where the U.S. discourse on the Middle East has failed; what role energy and economics will play in the region going forward; the impact of Trump's Venezuela operation (the abduction of Maduro) and what it means for international law, U.S. foreign policy, and the Middle East; Netanyahu's statements that Israel needs to taper itself off from U.S. assistance in the next decade; hubris, the lessons of history, and policy failures; the ascent of Al-Sharaa in Syria and the future of Syria; and much, much more.