The 2024 Election, Why Kamala Harris Lost, and What to Expect from the 2nd Trump Presidency w/ Dr. Jack Rasmus

In this insightful episode of Parallax Views w/ J.G. Michael, political economist Dr. Jack Rasmus joins J.G. to dissect the reasons behind Donald Trump’s unexpected victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. The discussion is centered around Dr. Rasmus's article, "Why Trump Won—And Some Consequences," which explores the economic and political factors that led to Trump’s victory in both the electoral college and the popular vote. Rasmus presents an in-depth analysis of the socio-economic discontent that propelled Trump’s victory, offering a fresh perspective on the frustrations and disillusionment affecting American voters today.

Dr. Rasmus argues that economic policies affecting the middle and working classes, alongside concerns over inflation, job stability, healthcare, and childcare costs played a pivotal role in the 2024 election. Dr. Rasmus addresses the now already common retort the economy could not have driven the outcome of the 2024 election due to the stock market booming, low unemployment rates, lowering of inflation, and a good GDP. He argues that media accounts of the economy have often cherry-picked statistics and do not necessarily deal with the economic well-being of average Americans. He offers statistic in support of his claims and makes the case for why many Americans felt their economic well-being was under siege.

A key aspect of this discussion centers on why Kamala Harris lost, with Dr. Rasmus exploring what he terms “The Humphrey Effect.” Similar to Hubert Humphrey’s inability to distance himself from Lyndon B. Johnson’s policies during the 1968 election, Harris struggled to differentiate her platform from President Joe Biden’s. Rasmus argues that voters saw Harris as an extension of Biden’s policies rather than a fresh alternative, which weakened her appeal.

Additionally, Dr. Rasmus contends that Harris’s focus on issues like the January 6th insurrection and identity politics, though central to her campaign, did not resonate with a wide swath of voters. Many Americans, rightly or wrongly, felt these issues were disconnected from their immediate economic concerns. Instead, inflation, job instability, and healthcare affordability were front and center for voters struggling to make ends meet. According to Rasmus, Harris’s perceived failure to address these economic pocketbook issues head-on left many working-class and middle-class voters disillusioned and created an opening for Trump to campaign on issues like no-taxes on tipping, etc.

In a second Trump presidency, Dr. Rasmus expects sweeping economic and social policy changes that will impact Americans across various income brackets. Trump’s approach will likely center on increased tariffs, which, while meant to protect American industries, may raise consumer prices, impacting the pocketbooks of average Americans—though not as severely as some Democrats predict. Rasmus argues that while consumer goods prices will increase under the tariff agenda, he is more immediately concerned about inflationary pressures in the service sector as well looming recession in said sector, which could have far-reaching economic consequences.

Rasmus anticipates that Trump will implement further austerity measures, reducing social spending on programs. In this regard we discuss what to expect out of Trump when it comes to social security. Rasmus also discusses the likely tax cuts for the wealthy that can be expected under this second Trump administration. Additionally, we delve into what Trump's second term may entail for climate change, tensions with China, foreign policy in the Middle East, and much, much more.