Critiquing Lichtman's Presidential Election Prediction Model, Will "Rust Best or Bust?" Hold in Future Elections, & Whose the Best VP Pick for Kamala Harris? w/ Lars Emerson

On this edition of Parallax Views, I was asked by a listener to have a guest on that could offer a critique of Lichtman, who appeared on my show recently, and his model. So on this edition of the program, The Postrider's Lars Emerson joins the show to discuss Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House model for predicting Presidential elections. The Postrider is a small media outlet run by two American University alumni, but has recently gained some attention for their critique of Lichtman's model. We'll discuss the nature of their critique in this model. Additionally, Lars and I will discuss his writing on the "Rust Belt or Bust" mentality talked about by Democrats during election seasons dn whether this will hold true in coming elections, especially by the 2030s. We'll also discuss the Sunbelt in this regard. And finally, we'll talk about the Postrider's tool for determining what potential Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate would make for the strongest ticket alongside Harris this election.

 

Links:

Allan Lichtman is Famous for Correctly Predicting the 2016 Election. The Problem? He Didn’t (thepostrider.com)

Letter: Allan Lichtman’s Response (thepostrider.com)

Is the Biden Campaign Really Relying on the Debunked 13 Keys to Make This Decision? (thepostrider.com)

When Will the Rust Belt’s Electoral Supremacy End? (thepostrider.com)

Is the Rust Belt Still the Lowest Hanging Fruit for Biden? (thepostrider.com)

The 2024 (Emergency) Democratic Vice Presidential Power Index (thepostrider.com)