Parallax Views w/ J.G. Michael

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Recorded: 12-11-24

On this edition of Parallax Views, J.G. reached out to a very interesting political analyst in his continued coverage of the situation in Syria with the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the ascendancy of the Islamist HTS led by Abu Muhammed al-Jolani. Graham E. Fuller specializes in long-range forecasting of geopolitics. In fact, Fuller is a former vice chair of the National Intelligence Council at CIA responsible for long-term forecasting. He also served as a CIA operations officer overseas for two decades, with much of his time being spent in the Middle East. He served as the CIA Station Chief in Kabul and is the author of such books as A World Without Islam (2010) and The Future of Political Islam (2003). He is a noted analyst on Islamist movements and continues to write extensively on issues pertaining to U.S. foreign policy, the Middle East, and geopolitics.

Graham joined me for a conversation about Assad's overthrow and what it means for various geopolitical players including the U.S. Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf states. We ended up having a more broad discussion that led into many different areas including:

- Explaining the phenomena that has come to be known as "Political Islam" sans the tabloid clickbait that has unfortunately something attended the non-academic literature on the topic

- Graham's critique of John Mearsheimer's Realist school of thought in regards to international relations. Graham believes there is great value in Mearsheimer's analysis, but makes the case that Realism as a school of thought is too often mechanistic and deterministic in how it perceives the course of geopolitical trends

- The U.S.'s endless "Search for Enemies" and the consequences that approach to foreign policy creates, in relation to, for example, the U.S.-China relationship

- The question of HTS and its leader Abu Muhammed al-Jolani; how will the govern?; HTS's administration of Idlib; how al-Jolani is, in the immediate, approaching the West and Israel

- Israel and Turkey's strikes in Syria; Turkey's geopolitical concerns over the Kurds in Syria; the far-right elements that have been unleashed in Israel, especially since the October 7th, 2023 attack and how that effects both Israel and the Middle East more broadly

- And much, much more!

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Recorded: 12-11-24

On this edition of Parallax Views, Ambassador (ret.) Patrick Theros returns to discuss the coming 2nd administration of President-elect Donald J. Trump in relation to the U.S. economy, the overthrow of Assad and the situation in Syria, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Israel/Palestine, and the future of Europe. At the beginning of the conversation Amb. Theros explains what he thinks cost the Democrats the 2024 election. He makes the case that the Democrats failed to appeal what voters were most concerned about and threw too much money at political consultants who weren't able to lead the Democrats to victory. In this regard, Theros criticizes the approach of wonks. He also argues that a number of culture war issues (ie: woke, trans issues, etc.) did not resonate during this election & the Democrats did not do enough to explain to voters why Biden's economic policies were a long-term good.

We then moved onto discussing the Trump's stated economic policies, particularly his plans for mass deportations of illegal/undocumented immigrants & tariffs. Theros argues that these two specific policies are at cross-purposes with each other. He also discusses Trump's tax cut plans.

From there we move onto international relations and foreign policy. Theros gives his take on the Syria situation (the overthrow of Assad by Syrian rebels) as well as Israel and Turkey, both U.S. allies, could come into conflict over based on what is currently been reported about Israeli strikes there. We will discuss the dynamics influencing both Turkey's Erdogan and Israel's Netanyahu and how this could lead to some real geopolitical tumult in the region.

Theros also offer his take on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and offers what he believes is Trump's plan for ending the conflict and bringing about negotiations. We discuss EU and NATO's eastward expansion and how the approach of EU/NATO eastward expansion played into Putin's hands. However, Theros argues that Putin's amassing of military forces along the border and eventual invasion of Ukraine changed the paradigm. As much as one can criticize how NATO and the EU approached dealing with Russia in the past, Theros argues Russia crossed a line with its actions involving Ukraine in a way that cannot be rationalized by the EU/NATO eastward expansion discourse. This leads us into a conversation about the future of Europe and increased defense spending in Europe.

In the course of our conversation Theros will also offer his criticism of populist politicians and express his concerns about the potential of the Trump administration to try and politicize the military.

In the second segment of the show, Antiwar.Com newswire reporter Dave DeCamp returns to discuss the latest developments in Syria. As with others who have spoken on the program in the past few days, DeCamp cautions that we are in murky territory with how events will unfold in Syria going forward. We discuss recent reporting on Ukraine's assisting the HTS Syrian Rebels, delve into HTS and its leader Abu Muhammed al-Jolani, the Islamist nature of HTS, the best-case scenario for Syria under HTS rule, the weakening of Iran due to these events, thoughts on Trump's hawkish picks for his administration, and much, much more!

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Recorded: 12-10-24

On this edition of Parallax Views, the Quincy Institute's Annelle Sheline returns to discuss overthrow of dictator Bashar al-Assad in Syria, U.S. foreign policy, and Israel's continued bombardment of Gaza. This is the first time Dr. Sheline has been back on the show since resigning from the State Department over the Biden administration's policies on Gaza. We'll discuss this uncertain moment in the Middle East where U.S. policy has gone wrong in the Middle East and beyond, Turkey, the U.S. and Israel's strikes in Syria; the Syrian rebel faction Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that has taken the Syrian capital of Damascus; Assad's dictatorship; U.S. double standards about international law in relation to Israel's action in Gaza; the possibility of continued conflict in Syria despite Assad's overthrow; the Kurds in northeastern Syria; concerns about Trump and Middle East policy under his administration; Iran and discourse around the "Axis of Resistance";  and much, much more.

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On this edition of Parallax Views, independent scholar and political commentator Wahid Azal, founder of the Fatimiya Sufi Order, returns to discuss the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria by Syrian rebels groups, most notably the HTS led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. This conversation deal specifically with the geopolitical implications of Assad's fall & Azal's contention that this marks the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic of Iran and a death blow to the "Axis of Resistance" (Syria, Hezbollah, Iran). We'll also discuss concerns Azal has pertaining to the Syrian rebels and jihadism as well as looking at the role of Turkey in Syria and the broader Middle East. The Abraham Accords, Israel, Gaza, the Gulf monarchies, NATO and the U.S., Islamism, imperialism, and much more will also be covered in this conversation.

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On this edition of Parallax Views, we continue our coverage of Syria and the toppling of the Assad regime. Time the Quincy Institute's Steven N. Simon, who covered Syria on the NSC for Presidents Clinton and Obama, discusses the winners and losers in lieu of Assad's overthrow. The big winner according to Steven Simon? Israel. And the big losers? Russia and Iran. We'll also discuss the Syrian rebels who were pivotal in the events that have transpired, specifically the Islamist HTS led by Muhammad al-Joulani. Additionally, Steven will give his thoughts on both the Biden administration and President-elect Donald Trump's response to this moment that Steven calls "a profound shift in the regional strategic order" for the Middle East. And, of course, we will be discussing such topics as Israel's deployment of troops in the Golan Heights, Erdogan's Turkey and the situation of the Kurds in northern Syria, and much, much more.

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Recording Date: 12-08-24

On this edition of Parallax Views, Bashar al-Assad has fled Syria as the country's rebels have taken over the capital, Damascus. Assad has been President of Syria since 2000. His toppling at the hands of Syrian rebels, most notably Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, represents a historic moment both for Syria, which has been ravaged by a civil war since March 2011, and the wider Middle East. What does this mean for all the various players in the region such as Iran, Turkey, the U.S., Russia, the Kurds, Islamic State, and, perhaps most importantly, Syria itself? In order to answer some of these questions, journalist, scholar, and frequent Parallax Views guest James M. Dorsey returned to the program to unpack this historic moment. We'll discuss the potential scenarios for Syria's future, the question of HTS and its relationship to ultra-conservative Sunni Islam, jihadism, the winners and losers in this moment of Syria's history, the Syrian Civil War, Obama's record in Syria, U.S. President-elect Trump's comments that the U.S. should not get involved in Syria going forward, and much, much more!

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Recording Date: 12-07-24

On this edition of Parallax Views, the past week on Wednesday the French government effectively collapsed when a no-confidence vote at the National Assembly toppled Prime Minister Michael Barnier. Not since 1962 has a moment of akin to this one happened in the French political scene. Joining J.G. to unpack it all are journalist and friend of the show Marlon Ettinger as well as Olly Haynes, who alongside Marlon co-hosts the FLAP24 (French Legislative Assembly Podcast 2024; formerly FLEP24).

We'll discuss a number of issues related to this historic moment including France's President Emmanuel Macron blaming a "coalition of the irresponsible" for the no-confidence vote (in other words, blaming the far-right and far-left), Barnier's austerity budget, the authoritarian streak and "Jupiterian" ethos of Macron, Marine Le Pen and the National Rally (formerly the National Front), the French left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the failures of Emmanuel Macron, challenging the narrative of Macron as a centrist liberal, and much, much more. Will also discuss Marlon's recent op-ed in the New York Times entitled "Marine Le Pen Is Holding France Hostage".

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Recording Date: 11-25-24

On this edition of Parallax Views, author and investigative journalist Nina Burleigh returns to discuss a potpourri of topics related to upcoming 2nd Trump Presidency after the 2024 election defeat of Kamala Harris. Nina is currently a contributing editor and writer at The New Republic and has authored such books as Virus: Vaccinations, the CDC, and the Hijacking of America's Response to the Pandemic, Golden Handcuffs: The Secret History of Trump's Women, and, most recently, her first novel, Zero Visibility Possible. The conversation initially came about due to Nina's New Republic piece, "Trump 2.0: Here Comes the Night". We'll discuss what she expects out of Trump's second Presidency as well as some recent pieces from her Substack blog American Freakshow, which chronicles the carnival-esque grotesquerie and excess of the 21st century GOP. Additionally, Nina will preview her new novel, the aforementioned Zero Visibility Possible, which deals with the madness of America in an age of fake news, mass violence, disinformation, and the breakdown of consensus reality.

In terms of Nina's American Freakshow blog we'll discuss her articles "Predators’ Ball", about the creeps who Trump have surrounded himself around (with a particular focus in this conversation on Trump's Defense Secretary pick Pete Hegseth), and "God and Guns in Pennsylvania", in which Nina goes over her experiences attending a Pennsylvania MAGA rally. Interestingly, said rally has ties to Rev. Sun Myung Moon and the Moonies and one of its key speakers was Sebastian Gorka, who is set to play a role in the Trump administration as counter-terrorism chief. In this regard we'll delve into the Moonie off-shot group AR-15 and look at Sebastian Gorka penchant for wearing symbols related to Hungarian fascism. All that and more on this edition of Parallax Views!

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Chip Gibbons Interview Recorded 11/25; Anatol Lieven Interview Recorded 11/26

On this edition of Parallax Views, in the first half of the program, Chip Gibbons, Policy Director of Defending Rights and Dissent, joins the program to discuss H.R. 9495 or the Stop Terror-Financing and Tax Penalties on American Hostages Act and its passage in the Congress' U.S. House of Representatives. The bill has been criticized on the grounds that it will trample on free speech, specifically in regard to pro-Palestinian protests. According to Defending Rights and Dissent, "This bill allows the Secretary of the Treasury to unilaterally strip tax-exempt status from nonprofits deemed 'terrorist supporting' without meaningful due process." Find out more about the bill and why Defending Rights and Dissent argues the bill is neo-McCarthyite in this segment of the program and the press release below:
"Defending Rights & Dissent Condemns Passage of H.R. 9495 - Defending Rights & Dissent"

In the second portion of the program, Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft returns to discuss U.S. foreign policy and the future of Europe, with a particular focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With a second Trump Presidency now inevitable, it seems increasingly likely that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will happen sooner rather than later, especially if Trump decides that the U.S. will not continue arming Ukraine. What would these negotiations look like? Will parts of Ukraine be annexed? Will the two countries' maximalist demands be whittled down during negotiations? What is the future of Europe and should Europe re-arm? All of these questions, as well as the issue of climate change as a national security threat will be covered. Additionally, Anatol and I will delve into the scare concerning Russia ICBMs from last week and what it says about the conflict and where it is at right now.

EDIT: In the interlude before the Lieven interview I mention annexation of Gaza and the West Bank. I'm not arguing an official annexation has happened, although many would argue that de facto annexation has been happening. There are elements of Israel openly calling for annexation.

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On this edition of Parallax Views, former CIA analyst and Cato Institute fellow Patrick G. Eddington, who specializes in issues related to homeland security and civil liberties, returns to the program to discuss a scandalous snafu on the part of the Office of National Intelligence in relation to questions of PRC espionage (specifically the issue of whether or not the PRC has made recruiting Chinese Americans for spying activities) that illustrates a massive government abuse of Freedom of Information Act Exemptions. The whole story was detailed in Patrick's Antiwar.Com article "PRC Espionage: Are Chinese Americans Their Top Recruitment Targets?".

In the second part of our conversation we delve into what a second Trump term will potentially mean for civil liberties in the United States and have a in-depth discussion about Trump's mass deportations plans for undocumented migrant/illegal immigrants. Back in August, Patrick wrote a piece for The Bulwark entitled "Trump Could Do a Mass Deportation. We’ve Done It Before.". We delve into the history of mass deportation plans than have been done in the past with a focus on Eisenhower as well as the crackdowns on German Americans during World War I. We'll also mention issues related to the internment camps of WWII and how they not only targeted Japanese American, but also German- and Italian Americans. Patrick will help us delve into the Alien Enemy Act which has been cited by Trump and his advisers already. Additionally, Patrick will comment on Kentucky Senator Rand Paul's criticisms of Trump wanting to use the U.S. military for mass deportations.

Also discussed in the course of this conversation is neo-McCarthyism and the China Initiative of the first Trump Presidency, threats to civil liberties in a second Trump term, the expansion of Presidential/Executive Branch powers over the years and its consequences, the January 6th insurrection/riots, and much, much more.